New SPLC Analysis: 30 Million Americans Have Not Mailed Their Ballots Yet

• As of October 28th, just over 63 million people have already voted in the 2020 election, both by mail and early in-person voting. Another 30 million people have an outstanding mail ballot. The number of people who have already voted or requested a ballot represents about 69% of the total votes cast in the 2016 general election.
• •Using modeled partisanship combined with party affiliation where it’s available, we can estimate that Democrats hold an 18.9% advantage over Republicans in mail ballots cast (down from 19.4% on 10/26). However, Republicans hold a 1.0% advantage in early in-person votes (down from 1.3% on 10/26). Democrats still have many more outstanding mail ballots than Republicans by a margin of 14.5% (down from 14.9% on 10/26).
• Young voters’ share of votes cast continues to rise. Voters aged 18-29 now make up 10.1% of mail ballots cast (up from 9.6% on 10/26) and 10.8% of early in-person votes (up from 10.2% on 10/26). The vote share of the oldest voters, those 65 and older, has seen a corresponding decrease in the last few days. Voters 65+ now make up 41.7% of mail ballots cast (down from 43.2% on 10/26) and 32.7% of early in-person votes (down from 34.1% on 10/26). 
• Black voters continue to turn out at high rates for early in-person voting. Black voters are just 14.3% or registered voters nationally, but make up 13.8% of early in-person voters (down slightly from 13.9% on 10/26).
• Latinx voters are making more use of vote by mail than early in-person voting. Latinx voters currently represent 9.5% of mail ballots cast nationally and 8.4% of early in-person voters.
• We’re continuing to see an increase in vote share among first time voters. First time voters currently make up 6.5% of mail ballots cast (up from 6.2% on 10/26) and 6.3% of early in-person votes.

• 3,854,960 voters in Florida have cast their ballots by mail and 2,456,232 have voted early in-person. Another 1,687,735 have an outstanding mail ballot. The total number of votes cast in Florida so far (both my mail and EIP) is 67.0% of the total votes cast in Florida in the 2016 general election.
• Democrats are outpacing Republicans in mail ballots cast by 15.9% (down from 16.2% on 10/26). However, Republicans currently hold an 11.9% advantage in early in-person votes (up from 11.0% on 10/26). Democrats still have more outstanding mail ballots than Republicans by a margin of 8.8% (up slightly from 8.7% on 10/26). This is based on official party registration, not modeled partisanship.
• Latinx voters’ vote share in Florida has continued to trend up. They currently make up 14.9% of mail ballots cast (up from 14.7% on 10/26) and 17.0% of early in-person votes (up from 16.6% on 10/26).
• Black voters continue to over-index among early in-person votes compared to their share of registered voters. Black voters make up 15.1% of early in-person votes despite being just 14.2% of registered voters. They also make up 11.4% of mail ballots cast (no change from 10/26).

Pennsylvania

• 1,780,478 voters in Pennsylvania have cast their mail ballots with another 1,117,193 voters having an outstanding ballot. These numbers represent a sizable shift from 10/26: 393,395 new ballots cast and 299,545 fewer outstanding ballots.
• Democrats continue to hold a large lead over Republicans in mail ballots cast, with a margin of 48.1% (down from 51.1% on 10/26). Democrats also have many more outstanding mail ballots than Republicans, with a margin of 22.4%. This is based on official party registration, not modeled partisanship.
• Black voters in Pennsylvania are still showing high vote by mail rates, though they are no longer over performing registration rate. Black voters make up 11.8% of registered voters and 11.4% of mail ballots cast (down from 12.2% on 10/26).
• White college-educated voters make up 43.6% of mail ballots cast by white voters (up slightly from 43.5% on 10/26). White non-college voters make up 44.6% of mail ballots cast by white voters (down slightly from 44.8% on 10/26). Both of these rates have been very consistent over the last week, with very little movement day-to-day.

• 2,182,493 voters in Michigan have cast their ballots by mail with another 89,956 having voted early in-person. 860,418 more voters have an outstanding mail ballot.
• Black voters make up 11.9% of mail ballots cast. This number has been very stable, not changing since 10/21.
• White college-educated voters in Michigan make up 40.7% of mail ballots cast by white voters (up slightly from 40.6% on 10/26). White non-college voters make up 50.3% of mail ballots cast by white voters (down slightly from 50.4% on 10/26).
• Michigan continues to have fewer first time voters than the national average, though it has increased in recent days. As of today, 4.2% of mail ballots cast in Michigan have come from first time voters (up from 3.8% on 10/26). And while there aren’t many early in-person votes in Michigan overall, 6.5% of those have been cast by first time voters.

• 996,400 voters in Wisconsin have cast their mail ballots and 271,809 have voted early in-person. Another 338,380 have outstanding mail ballots.
• Young voters (aged 18-29) currently make up 8.4% of mail ballots cast (no change from 10/26) and 4.6% of early in-person votes (no change from 10/26).
• Women are still outpacing men in mail ballots cast by a wide margin (13.9%) despite having only a 5.6% registration advantage. However that gap shrinks considerably among early in-person votes, where women hold just a 2.7% margin.
• Black voters continue to make use of Wisconsin’s early in-person voting at high rates. Black voters currently make up 5.7% of early in-person votes and 5.7% of total registered voters. 

• 434,016 voters in Nevada have cast their mail ballots and another 339,190 have voted early in-person. The state of Nevada sent mail ballots to all registered voters this year, so there is no data about ballot requests to report.
• Democrats are currently outpacing Republicans by 21.7% in mail ballots cast (up from 18.0% on 10/26). In early in-person votes, Republicans continue to hold an advantage over Democrats by 13.7% (up from 11.7% on 10/26). This is based on official party registration, not modeled partisanship.
• Nevada continues to have a high number of first time voters. 13.0% of mail ballots cast have come from first time voters (up from 12.2% on 10/26), which is well ahead of the 6.5% national average. Among early in-person votes, 9.0% have come from first time voters, compared to 6.3% nationally.
• Latinx voters’ share of mail ballots cast is 12.8% (up from 11.9% on 10/26) and 14.0% of early in-person votes (down from 14.3% on 10/26).
• Black voters’ share of mail ballots is currently 9.0% (up from 8.2% on 10/26) and 8.9% of early in-person votes (down from 9.9% on 10/26).

• 1,000,706 voters in Georgia have cast their mail ballots and 1,931,907 have voted early in-person. Another 505,225 voters have an outstanding mail ballot. The total number of ballots cast (both by mail and EIP) represents 71.2% of the total votes cast in Georgia in the 2016 general election.
• Modeled Democrats hold a 4.7% advantage over modeled Republicans in mail ballots cast (no change from 10/26). Modeled Republicans hold a 13.1% advantage in early in-person votes (up from 12.9% on 10/26).
• Black voters currently make up 33.4% of mail ballots cast (no change from 10/26) and 30.2% of early in-person votes (down slightly from 30.3% on 10/26), which is keeping pace with share of registered voters (33.6%).
• Young voters’ vote share in Georgia continues to trend up. Voters aged 18-29 make up 8.7% of mail ballots cast (up from 8.2% on 10/26) and 12.4% of early in-person votes (up from 11.9% on 10/26).
• Young Latinx voters are turning out at higher rates than young voters in the state overall. Latinx voters under 40 are 36.0% of mail ballots cast by Latinx voters (compared to 17.1% among all voters under 40) and 45.4% of early in-person votes by Latinx voters (compared to 26.0% among all voters under 40). 

• 1,756,229 voters in Arizona have cast their ballots by mail with another 1,351,029 voters having an outstanding mail ballot.
• Democrats currently have a 4.8% advantage over Republicans in mail ballots cast (down from 8.0% on 10/26). Republicans currently have more outstanding ballots than Democrats, by a margin of 6.0% (down from 6.5% on 10/26). Arizona is one of the only battleground states where Republicans have more outstanding ballots than Democrats. This is using official party registration, not modeled partisanship.
• Latinx voters’ share of mail ballots cast continues to trend up, currently making up 14.4% of mail ballots cast (up slightly from 14.3% on 10/26).
• Young voters’ share of mail ballots cast has also continued to increase in Arizona. The share of mail ballots cast by voters aged 18-29 has increased from 8.7% on 10/26 to 9.6% as of today.

• 280,580 voters in Maine have cast ballots by mail and another 96,116 have voted early in-person. 69,084 voters have outstanding mail ballots.
• Democrats currently hold a 34.6% advantage over Republicans in mail ballots cast (down from 36.2% on 10/26) and a 14.6% advantage in early in-person votes (down from 18.2% on 10/26). This is using official party registration, not modeled partisanship.
• College-educated white voters make up 40.2% of mail ballots cast by white voters (down from 40.4% on 10/26) and 38.8% of early in-person white voters (down from 39.2% on 10/26).