New SPLC Analysis: With Less Than 2 Weeks Before Election Day, 38 Million Americans Have Not Mailed Their Ballots

MONTGOMERY, Ala. – A new analysis released today by the Southern Poverty Law Center (SPLC) finds that with less than two weeks to go before the 2020 General Election, at least 38 million Americans have not mailed in their ballots.

As of today in states that publish absentee and early vote data, more than 30 million people have already voted by mail or early in-person; 38 million ballots requested by mail are outstanding. 

First time voters account for 15% of the outstanding mail ballots. Younger voters continue to lag in returning mail ballots and voting early in-person. Voters aged 18-29 make up 17.5% of registered voters but are just 8.3% of mail ballots cast and 9.1% of early in-person votes.

“It’s encouraging to see that millions of people have already exercised their right to vote, but millions more votes have yet to be cast,” said Seth Levi, Chief Strategy Officer for the SPLC. “While older voters continue to take advantage of absentee and early voting options, we need to see the same level of enthusiasm from younger and first-time voters. There are less than two weeks before November 3. Now is the time to make a plan to vote — and the earlier, the better.”

The analysis is a part of an ongoing data tracking and reporting project between BlueLabs Analytics and the SPLC to track requested and returned absentee ballots as well as early voting in the states that report these numbers. These numbers will be essential reference points as Election Night results begin to be reported, and the SPLC, allied groups, and election observers strive to ensure enough votes have been counted for an appropriate call to be made at presidential and statewide levels. 

Read the full report here.

Currently, the SPLC projects regular updates on absentee and early voting trends and analysis two to three times a week before November 3. If you are interested in additional data from the latest analysis, please contact us. 

ADDITIONAL NATIONAL HIGHLIGHTS:

• As of October 21st, over 30 million people have already voted in the 2020 election, both by mail and early in-person. Another 38 million people have an outstanding mail ballot. The number of people who have already voted or requested a ballot represents just over 50% of the total votes cast in the 2016 general election.
• Using modeled partisanship combined with party affiliation where it’s available, we can estimate that Democrats hold a 21.4% advantage over Republicans in mail ballots cast (up from 20.8% on 10/19) and a 4.0% advantage in early in-person votes (up from 3.6% on 10/19). Democrats have many more ballots outstanding than Republicans by a margin of 15.7% (up from 14.7% on 10/19).
• Younger voters continue to lag in returning mail ballots and voting early in-person. Voters aged 18-29 make up 17.5% of registered voters but are just 8.3% of mail ballots cast (up from 7.8% on 10/19) and 9.1% of early in-person votes (no change since 10/19). Voters 65 and older make up 24.3% of registered voters but are 46.8% of mail ballots cast (down from 48.3% on 10/19) and 37.9% of early in-person votes (up slightly from 37.6% on 10/19).
• Women continue to outpace men in total votes cast. Women have a 5.6% registration advantage over men but are 9.9% ahead in mail ballots and 10.6% ahead in early in-person votes.
• First time voters make up 5.3% of mail ballots cast (up from 4.9% on 10/19), however they hold 15.0% of mail ballots outstanding. 

KEY STATE HIGHLIGHTS:

Florida

• 2,489,951 voters in Florida have cast their ballots by mail with another 3,325,558 voters having outstanding mail ballots.
• Democrats are outpacing Republicans in mail ballots cast by 19.0% (no change from 10/19). Democrats have many more outstanding mail ballots than Republicans by a margin of 9.9% (no change from 10/19). This is based on official party registration, not modeled partisanship.
• Latinx voters currently make up 13.3% of mail ballots cast (no change from 10/19), though they represent 17.8% of registered voters in the state.
• Black voters currently make up 14.2% of registered voters and 11.3% of mail ballots cast.
• Age disparities are particularly pronounced in Florida where voters 65 and older make up 28.2% of registered voters but 53.2% of mail ballots cast. 

Pennsylvania

• 878,448 voters in Pennsylvania have cast their ballots by mail with another 1,822,185 having an outstanding mail ballot.
• Black voters in Pennsylvania are overperforming their registration rates. Black voters make up 11.8% of registered voters in the state but currently represent 14.1% of mail ballots cast. AAPI voters are also slightly overperforming, with 2.11% of ballots cast while representing 1.95% of registered voters.
• Democrats continue to significantly outpace Republicans in mail ballots cast. They currently hold a 56.2% advantage (down from 58.3% on 10/19). This is based on official party registration, not modeled partisanship.
• White college-educated voters are overperforming their registration rates. They make up 36.0% of white registered voters but are 43.1% of mail ballots cast by white voters. White non-college voters, on the other hand, are 49.1% of white registered voters and 44.9% of ballots cast by white voters.

Michigan

• 1,512,076 voters in Michigan have cast their ballots by mail with another 36,451 having voted early in-person. 1,398,749 people have outstanding mail ballots.
• Modeled Republicans are currently outpacing modeled Democrats in mail ballots cast by 0.7% (down from 1.7% on 10/19).
• Black voters make up 11.9% of mail ballots cast (up from 10.9% on 10/19).
• White college-educated voters in Michigan are outperforming their registration rates by 7.6% (33.0% of white registered voters and 40.6% of mail ballots cast by white voters). 

Wisconsin

• 831,563 voters in Wisconsin have cast their ballots and another 506,212 have an outstanding mail ballot.
• Modeled Democrats are leading modeled Republicans in mail ballots cast by 0.7% (up from 0.6% on 10/19).
• Women are outpacing men in mail ballots cast by 14.2% (no change from 10/19) despite only having a 5.6% registration advantage.

Nevada

• 171,215 voters in Nevada have cast their ballots by mail with another 87,651 having voted early in-person. The state of Nevada sent mail ballots to all registered voters this year, so there is no data about ballot requests to report.
• Democrats are currently outpacing Republicans by 24.2% in mail ballots cast (up from 23.4% on 10/19) and by 6.1% in early in-person votes (down from 20.2% on 10/19). Early in-person voting has only been happening since Saturday, Oct. 17th, so the numbers are still relatively small, which is why there has been such a large shift in vote share. This is using official party registration, not modeled partisanship.
• Nevada continues to have a high number of first time voters. 14.0% of mail ballots have come from first time voters (up from 13.9% on 10/19), which is well ahead of the 5.3% national average.
• Latinx voters make up 11.6% of mail ballots cast (up from 11.3% on 10/19) and 13.2% of early in-person votes. Black voters make up 7.3% of mail ballots cast (up from 7.0% on 10/19) and 10.6% of early in-person votes. 

Georgia

• 660,721 voters in Georgia have cast their mail ballots and 809,073 people have voted early in-person. Another 897,024 voters have outstanding mail ballots.
• Modeled Democrats hold a 6.4% advantage over modeled Republicans in mail ballots cast (no change from 10/19). Modeled Republicans, however, hold a 5.6% advantage in early in-person votes (down from 6.2% on 10/19).
• Black voters make up 33.6% of registered voters in the state and currently represent 34.3% of mail ballots cast (no change from 10/19) and 33.4% of early in-person votes (up slightly from 33.3% on 10/19).
• Older Black voters are significantly outperforming their registration rates. Black voters over 40 make up 56.5% of registered Black voters, but represent 87.2% of mail ballots cast by Black voters and 77.1% of early in-person votes from Black voters. 

North Carolina

• 635,108 voters in North Carolina have cast their mail ballots and another 1,186,586 have voted early in-person.
• Black voters continue to over-index among early in-person voters, making up 28.2% of votes (down from 29.3% on 10/19) compared to 23.1% of registered voters.
• Among early in-person votes, Democrats hold a 12.5% advantage over Republicans (down from 14.6% on 10/19). Among mail ballots cast, that gap increases to 30.8% (down from 31.5% on 10/19). This is using official party registration, not modeled partisanship.
• First time voters make up 8.1% of mail ballots cast (up from 7.8% on 10/19), which is well ahead of the 5.3% national average

Arizona

• 640,325 voters have cast their ballots by mail with another 2,382,959 having an outstanding mail ballot.
• Democrats are currently outpacing Republicans in mail ballots cast by 13.1% (down from 14.5% on 10/19). Republicans hold a 3.2% advantage in outstanding mail ballots. This is using official party registration, not modeled partisanship.
• Latinx voters make up 13.0% of ballots returned (up from 12.4% on 10/19).
• Voters aged 18-29 make up 18.5% of registered voters in Arizona but just 7.5% of mail ballots cast (up from 7.2% on 10/19). Conversely, voters 65 and older make up 26.2% of registered voters but 47.0% of mail ballots cast (down from 48.1% on 10/19).

In addition to analyzing voter trends, SPLC - in partnership with the Community Foundation for Greater Atlanta - is supporting voter registration and mobilization efforts in Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana and Mississippi this election cycle through the Vote Your Voice initiative. 

SPLC is investing up to $30 million from its endowment in nonpartisan, nonprofit voter outreach organizations across the Deep South to increase voter registration and participation among people of color.

The Vote Your Voice campaign seeks to: empower communities of color by aiding them in their fight against voter suppression; support Black- and brown-led voter outreach organizations often ignored by traditional funders; support and prototype effective voter engagement strategies; and re-enfranchise returning citizens despite intentional bureaucratic challenges.