New SPLC Analysis: Younger Voters Continue to Lag in Returning Mail Ballots and Voting Early In-person

MONTGOMERY, Ala. – A new analysis released today by the Southern Poverty Law Center (SPLC) finds that as voters across the country begin to cast their ballots for the 2020 General Election, younger voters continue to lag in returning mail ballots and voting early in-person. 

As of October 19 in states that publish absentee and early vote data, voters aged 18 to 29 make up 17.5% of registered voters but are just 7.8% of ballots cast by mail (up from 7.0% on 10/15) and 9.1% of early in-person votes (up from 7.8% on 10/15).  Conversely, voters 65 and older make up 24.3% of registered voters but are 48.3% of ballots cast by mail and 37.6% of early in-person ballots.

“It’s encouraging to see the number of young voter engagement in this election is going up, but they are still very low,” said Seth Levi, Chief Strategy Officer for the SPLC. “While older voters are taking advantage of absentee and early voting options, we need to see the same level of enthusiasm from younger voters. We’re only 14 days before November 3. Now is the time to make a plan to vote — and the earlier, the better.”

The analysis is a part of an ongoing data tracking and reporting project between BlueLabs Analytics and the SPLC to track requested and returned absentee ballots as well as early voting in the states that report these numbers. These numbers will be essential reference points as Election Night results begin to be reported, and the SPLC, allied groups, and election observers strive to ensure enough votes have been counted for an appropriate call to be made at presidential and statewide levels. 

Read the full report here. 

Currently, the SPLC projects regular updates on absentee and early voting trends and analysis two to three times a week before November 3. 

ADDITIONAL NATIONAL HIGHLIGHTS:

• As of October 19th, more than 25 million people have already voted in the 2020 election, both by mail and early in-person. 41 million more people have requested a mail ballot. The number of people who have already voted or requested their ballots represents 49% of the total votes cast in the 2016 general election.
• Using modeled partisanship combined with party affiliation where it’s available, we can estimate that Democrats hold a 20.8% advantage over Republicans in ballots cast by mail (down from 21.6% on 10/15) and a 3.6% advantage in early in-person votes (down from 14.1% on 10/15). Democrats still have many more ballots outstanding than Republicans with a 14.7% margin (down slightly from 15.3% on 10/15).
• Women continue to outpace men in total votes cast, with a 10.0% advantage in mail ballots cast and a 10.6% advantage in early in-person votes.
• First time voters make up 4.9% of mail ballots cast (up from 4.5% on 10/15), however they hold 14.2% of outstanding ballots requested. 

KEY STATE HIGHLIGHTS:

Florida

• 2,463,442 voters in Florida have cast their ballots by mail with another 3,307,363 voters having requested ballots.
• Democrats are outpacing Republicans in mail ballots cast by 19.0% (down from 21.2% on 10/15). Among ballots requested, Democrats hold a 9.9% advantage (down from 10.3% on 10/15). This is based on official party registration, not modeled partisanship.
• Latinx voters currently make up 13.3% of mail ballots cast (up from 12.5% on 10/15), though they represent 17.8% of registered voters in the state.
• First time voters make up 4.2% of mail ballots cast in Florida (down from 5.4% on 10/15).

Pennsylvania

• 662,616 voters in Pennsylvania have cast their ballots by mail with another 1,945,216 voters having requested ballots.
• Despite making up 25.4% of registered voters, voters 65 and older make up 47.0% mail ballots cast. Conversely, voters aged 18-29 make up 16.4% of registered voters and just 8.8% of mail ballots cast.
• Democrats are significantly outpacing Republicans in mail ballots cast. They currently hold a 58.3% advantage (down from 60.5% on 10/15). This is based on official party registration, not modeled partisanship.
• While first time voters represent 8.3% of ballots requested, they make up just 4.3% of mail ballots cast.

Michigan

• 1,377,069 voters in Michigan have cast their ballots by mail with another 32,167 having voted early in-person. 1,502,813 voters have outstanding mail ballots.
• Modeled Republicans are currently outpacing modeled Democrats in mail ballots cast by 1.7% (up from 1.0% on 10/15).
• Black voters make up 10.9% of mail ballots cast (up from 10.6% on 10/15).
• First time voters make up just 3.0% of mail ballots cast, though they hold 8.5% of outstanding ballots.

Wisconsin

• 827,755 voters in Wisconsin have voted in the 2020 election with another 508,658 having outstanding mail ballots.
• Modeled Democrats are leading modeled Republicans in mail ballots cast by 0.6% (down from 1.4% on 10/15).
• Women are outpacing men in mail ballots cast by 14.2% despite only having a 5.6% registration advantage. 

Nevada

• 129,924 voters in Nevada have cast their ballots by mail with another 43,851 voting early in-person. The state of Nevada sent mail ballots to all registered voters this year, so there is no data about ballot requests to report.
• Democrats are currently outpacing Republicans by 23.4% in mail ballots cast and 20.2% in early in-person votes. This is using official party registration, not modeled partisanship.
• 13.9% of mail ballots have come from first time voters (up from 9.6% on 10/15), which is well ahead of the 4.9% national average.
• Latinx voters make up 11.3% of mail ballots cast (up from 8.8% on 10/15). Black voters make up 7.0% of mail ballots cast (up from 6.3% on 10/15).

Georgia

• In Georgia, 653,069 people have cast mail ballots and 772,534 people have voted early in-person. Another 907,005 people have an outstanding mail ballot.
• Modeled Democrats hold a 6.4% advantage over modeled Republicans in mail ballots cast (down from 9% on 10/15). Modeled Republicans, however, hold a 6.2% advantage in early in-person votes.
• Black voters make up 33.6% of registered voters in the state and currently represent 34.3% of mail ballots cast and 33.3% of early in-person votes.
• First time voters represent 23.0% of registered voters, 13.4% of outstanding ballots, 4.6% of mail ballots cast, and 4.4% of early in-person voters. 

North Carolina

• In North Carolina, 600,276 voters have cast their mail ballots and another 812,714 have voted early in-person.
• Black voters over-index among early in-person votes, making up 29.3% compared to 23.1% of registered voters.
• Among early in-person votes, Democrats hold a 14.6% advantage. Among mail ballots cast, that gap increases to 31.5% (down slightly from 33.2% on 10/15). This is using official party registration, not modeled partisanship.
• First time voters make up 7.8% of mail ballots cast, ahead of the 4.9% national average.

Arizona

• 535,796 voters have cast their ballots by mail with another 12,019 having voted early in-person. 2,476,226 voters have an outstanding mail ballot.
• Democrats are currently outpacing Republicans in mail ballots cast by 14.5% (down from 21.3% on 10/15). Republicans hold a 2.8% advantage in outstanding mail ballots. This is using official party registration, not modeled partisanship.
• Latinx voters make up 19.8% of ballots requested but just 12.4% of ballots returned (up from 10.6% on 10/15).
• Voters aged 18-29 make up 18.5% of registered voters in Arizona but just 7.2% of mail ballots cast. Conversely, voters 65 and older make up 26.2% of registered voters but 48.1% of mail ballots cast.

Maine

• 169,025 voters in Maine have cast ballots by mail and another 47,528 have voted early in-person. 159,104 voters have outstanding mail ballots.
• Democrats currently hold a 40.6% advantage over Republicans in mail ballots cast (down from 44.4% on 10/15) and a 24.6% advantage in early in-person votes (down from 29.0% on 10/15).
• College-educated white voters make up 32.5% of registered voters but 41.1% of mail ballots cast and 40.2% of early in-person votes.

Read the full report here: https://www.splcenter.org/sites/default/files/bluelabs_avev_memo_10192020.pdf